2026 World Cup Group D
- Pot 1 Team – USA Rank (16)
- Pot 2 Team – Aus Rank (27)
- Pot 3 Team – Paraguay Rank (40)
- Pot 4 Team – Turkey Rank (22) – European playoff winner
Here is Group D with their current FIFA rankings that the USMNT will be playing in when they kick off their World Cup journey against Paraguay in Los Angeles in 78 days’ time. The semifinals for the European playoffs happened, providing more clarity on what the road to the knockouts will look like for the stars and stripes come June. This makes it a good time to look at the makeup of the foes in Group D.
The Good
The positives on the group draw for the U.S. are that this is a very manageable group to progress from. This is absolutely not the nightmare scenario that could have unfolded where the U.S. drew Morocco, Norway and one of the European playoff spots. The best news of the drawing was receiving the lowest ranked team out of pot 2 in the Australians. Avoiding the top half of pot 2 that featured Croatia, Morocco, Colombia, Switzerland, Uruguay and Japan. All ranked inside the top 20 and would have provided more than one headache for Pochettino to gameplan for. The U.S. received a middle of the pot team in Paraguay from Pot 3 that should result in a reasonable path to 3 points should they put together 90 solid minutes. Put together, this is a group the USMNT should advance from. Anything less will be a major failure on the biggest stage.
The Not as Good
This absolutely is not a group that the U.S. can sleepwalk through. The toughest part of the draw is absolutely the draw of a UEFA playoff spot from Pot 4. This resulted in Turkey, who would have been in Pot 2 had they not been in the playoff, which is automatically placed in pot 4 with the lowest ranked teams. Turkey is extremely solid at the back tactically and features players like Real Madrid’s Arda Güler and Juventus’ Kenan Yıldız in attack that are capable of leaving their imprint on the game. In a new World Cup format where the top three finishers in the group can advance, having a clear cut fourth team can provide some safety. Instead that spot in Group D now goes to a team that can beat any of the other three teams in the group on any given day. Turkey is a dangerous team and a more than capable challenger for the top spot in Group D.
Despite being the ideal draw from pot 2, Australia is absolutely not a team to be taken lightly. They earned a playoff spot in 2022 and progressed as the pot 4 team into a Group D that included France, Denmark and Tunisia. An extremely tough draw in which the Socceroos would go on to beat both Denmark and Tunisia to finish second in the group and earn an unlikely spot in the Round of 16. This is absolutely a team that can achieve results against sides above their ranking and would not require an unlikely outcome to take three points against the U.S. They are structurally strong and play with grit and pride that make them a formidable opponent who can achieve results over teams that may be “more talented.”
As for the Paraguayans, Miguel Almiron and company absolutely possess the quality and tenacity necessary to take all three points should the U.S. put up a shaky performance in game one. This would make the group stage outcome look significantly bleaker if the U.S. were staring at matches with Australia and Turkey having zero points in hand. This is not the group of death the U.S. drew in 2014, but it is a group more than capable of punishing mediocrity. They are compact in defense combined with attacking talent in Julio Enciso of Strasbourg and Diego Gómez from Brighton & Hove Albion to provide the offensive creativity and flair that we associate with South American soccer.
The In Between – Recent History
It is relatively ordinary to play opponents in the World Cup that are not familiar given they will be from regions outside the usual CONCACAF competitions for the U.S. This is not the case as the USMNT has played Australia, Paraguay and Turkey within the last calendar year. Earning a 2-1 victory against Paraguay on Nov. 15, 2025, a 2-1 win against Australia on Oct. 14, 2025, and a 1-2 defeat against Turkey on June 7, 2025 (under Berhalter). While these matches featured different lineups than what we’ll likely see in June, there are still things to take away that will impact the matches. The familiarity of styles and personnel will certainly impact the game plans, and the close scores should dispel any false dreams of the U.S. walking through the group stage untested. The familiarity is not inherently good or bad, but how it is used to prepare will be a good or bad thing come matchday.
The Outlook
The expectations for the U.S. in a home World Cup with this team are high. And they should be. This team has enough quality to expect a first-place group finish, followed by multiple wins in the knockouts. But there are enough reminders in recent memory of the distance between where this team may be, and where we would like them to be to achieve goals like reaching the semifinals. Such as a disastrous group stage exit in the home Copa America, and a troubling result in the most recent friendly window against Belgium. The great teams are not unbeatable for the U.S. but differentiate themselves as great through details like being much more clinical in the final third and absolutely ruthless in punishing U.S. mistakes like poor defense in transition or giveaways at the back. But that should not quell the excitement for a home World Cup or advocate for low expectations of the team. The excitement should be boundless. It’s just about finding the right balance of high expectations and caution. Recognizing the potential of the team, the quality of opponents and the volatility of the World Cup where -as cliché as it sounds- anything can happen. There are few better forms of drama than 90 unforgiving minutes on a pitch in a World Cup. Which requires teams to take things 90 minutes at a time. Every World Cup Dream starts or ends with the first step, getting out of the group.